The future is going to get better. Maybe not this week, maybe not even this year, but this recession will end. That's one thing that fascnates me about the LAFCo fiscal analysis. It was done using the crappy numbers we're experiencing now, and by LAFCo policy, assumes those numbers will more or less hold true for the next decade. And even with those bad numbers, the study shows we may be financially feasible. Actually, we missed the highest ranking, likely to be financially feasible, by less than one percentage point. Go figure.
Now, I have admitted in the past that although I'm pretty good at math, as soon as you put a dollar sign into the equation, I become a babbling idiot. Seriously. I was in pre-calc my sophomore year of high school. But I thank God for online banking, since my balance is always a few clicks away and I never have to balance the checkbook.
But even I can finally get some simple things straight, given enough time. That's why Stay Sacramento's treatment of the analysis numbers has me squinting. Something isn't adding up.
Stay Sac keeps pointing to the bad economy as a reason it's the wrong time for incorporation. First off, let's agree we can dismiss this as a crock argument, since they were saying the same thing four years ago when the numbers were good. But this is what I'm figuring out: if we can be viable with the current numbers, in one of the worst economies we've seen since the Great Depression, shouldn't we all be jumping up and down for joy? Doesn't that mean that when things get better, which of course they will at some point, then our situation will be even more viable? As Howard Jones sang about three decades ago, Things can only get better! They did then, and they will now!
So what about the aspects of the future that we can change? One thing I've noticed from the Stay Sacramento donor filing is how many real estate brokers and agents were on their donor list. Many of them are Michael "Don't bother me, I'm being investigated again" Lyon's minions, so maybe that's understandable. They have their own Kool-Aid issues to deal with. But what about the rest?
Back in a past life (around the time of that Howard Jones song, actually), I tried my hand at selling real estate. Like I do with most new experiences, I started out by studying how the industry works. But now, three decades and a couple thousand miles away, things don't quite add up.
When an area incorporates, history shows us that crime goes down. Code enforcement is improved nd the neighborhoods start to look cleaner and more well-maintained. Schools improve. Parks start offering more services. Drug dealers and other "bad elements" tend to move toward more friendly bases. Check the facts. Every one of these happened in all three recent Sac County incorporations.
Combine all of those things, and the net result is an area where people want to live. Demand for available homes goes up (granted, this will be more impacting after we climb out of this recession, but that's going to happen, right?), and that will drive up prices. Home values will recover to where they have been historically, after some time, and eventually drive even higher because of the new lease on life for the area.
Now this is the part I don't understand. When I sold real estate, our commission checks were based on a percentage of the sale price. When the price went up, so did our pay. If things work the same way out here in Cali, then all of the real estate agents and brokers who are supporting cityhood opposition are stealing money out of their own pockets! They are backing a group of rich lobbyists and special interests that has a stated plan to stop incorporation, which is the single worst thing that can happen to their personal bottom line!
It amazes me that the cult of personality and fear-mongering can be so strong that people will act against their own best interests. The same holds true for the houses in the north area, proudly displaying the red white and blue signs, not even realizing their support will lead to keeping their own home values down, unemployment up, and the hookers and gangs continuing to encroach into their neighborhoods.
It's time to wake up. Don't buy the lies. Do your own research and watch what happens. I've seen it too many times to doubt any more.